VP Pawlenty Watch: When will McCain's running mate be announced?

Will Governor Tim Pawlenty become our nation's next vice president? It's hard to keep track of all the many factors at play. Each week, the VP Pawlenty Meter (TM) provides an odds sheet to ensure you make your best bet.

Tim Pawlenty has been a veepstakes frontrunner (and has been denying he's interested in the job) seemingly forever. When's the damn announcement going to be made already?

If history is any indication, it'll be around the last week of August.

This site takes a look at previous running made announcements and finds they invariably happened right before the national convention:

Besides the Edwards selection in 2004, every running mate in recent presidential history has been announced days before the party’s national convention. Obviously, many presumptive nominees have choices in mind throughout the primary season and into early summer. History, tradition, and party politics, however, have made it the norm to publicly introduce running mate selections only days in advance of their official nomination at the convention.

Here's a table of the data:


2004-----John Kerry/John Edwards------------July 6th (DNC: July 26-29) 2000-----George W. Bush/Dick Cheney-----July 25th (RNC: July 31-Aug. 3) 2000-----Al Gore/Joe Lieberman---------------August 8th (DNC: Aug. 14-17) 1996-----Bob Dole/Jack Kemp-----------------August 11th (RNC: Aug 12-15) 1992-----Bill Clinton/Al Gore--------------------July 10th (DNC: July 13-16) 1988-----Michael Dukakis/Lloyd Bentse----July 13th (DNC: July 18-21)

Of course, if McCain was gonna pick T-Paw, don't you think he'd want to announce from the convention floor when the RNC is in his homestate? Maybe we'll have to wait till September ...