Romney has halved Obama's Minnesota lead since May, says new SurveyUSA poll
It's hard to say why, but for some reason, polling indicates Romney has halved Obama's Minnesota lead since May.
Perhaps SurveyUSA's latest Minnesota survey should be taken with a grain of salt -- after all, as late as September 15, 2008, polls showed Barack Obama and John McCain tied in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, though of course less than two months later Obama went on to carry the state by a comfortable 10 points.
But SurveyUSA's latest numbers, released today, indicate that since May, Romney is doing something right in Minnesota. A May 10 poll showed Obama leading Romney by a margin of 52 to 38, but Obama's lead has apparently been sliced in half in the last two months -- he's now ahead of Romney by a just-outside-the-4.3-percent-margin-of-error split of 46 to 40 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents either support another candidate (7 percent) or are undecided (7 percent).
From KSTP's analysis of the survey results:
Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern Minnesota, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.
The Hill interprets the SurveyUSA numbers as the most recent evidence that "the presumptive Republican nominee is outperforming expectations in the Upper Midwest," noting that in Michigan, "the occasional poll has even found Romney ahead."
"While the president is still the favorite in all three states [i.e., Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan], the Romney campaign is hoping to force the incumbent president to spend resources in the Upper Midwest playing defense," The Hill adds.
SurveyUSA contacted 700 Minnesota adults between July 17 and July 19 for the survey. Respondents were reached on land lines, cell phones, and via questionnaires on smartphones and tablets. Six hundred and twenty one of the survey respondents were registered to vote, and 552 of those characterized themselves as likely voters.
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