Minnesota marriage amendment supported by 50 percent, opposed by 43, new poll says

Activists on either side of the issue are fighting over 8 percent of Minnesotans, the polling indicates.
Activists on either side of the issue are fighting over 8 percent of Minnesotans, the polling indicates.

-- MN Marriage amendment: Majority support one man-one woman definition, says new survey
-- Support growing for gay marriage in Minnesota, new polling suggests

A new SurveyUSA/KSTP marriage amendment poll shows that the gap between 'Vote Yes' and 'Vote No' has narrowed slightly since mid-July, but the amendment still looks poised to pass.

According to the latest survey, 50 percent of Minnesotans are in favor of the same-sex marriage ban, compared to 43 percent opposed and 8 percent undecided. (Astute readers will notice that adds up to 101 percent, but it's presumably just a result of a rounding quirk, not a mistake with the polling.)

From KSTP:

The amendment is favored in all regions of the state, with the closest margin in the Twin Cities metro area where the "yes" vote is ahead just 46 percent to 44 percent. The amendment is also supported by voters in the 18 to 49 age group by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent. "Likely voters" over the age of 50 support the amendment 51 percent to 44 percent.

While the polling is fairly grim for supporters of marriage equality, it's slightly less grim than the SurveyUSA/KSTP poll released in mid-July. That poll found 52 percent in favor of the amendment, compared to 37 percent opposed and 11 percent undecided. So the gap has narrowed slightly, but if it continues to close at the rate it has over the past two months, then amendment supporters will still have some margin to spare come November 6.

Comparison of the July and September polls is complicated by the fact that the question pollsters asked Minnesotans changed. In July, SurveyUSA went with this: "An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?" But, as pointed out by MinnPost's David Brauer, the question asked this time around conforms to the actual wording of the amendment: "Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

Meanwhile, voter ID is backed by an even larger proportion of Minnesotans. That amendment, which has polled well all along, is supported by 62 percent, with 31 percent opposed and 7 percent undecided.

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