WaPo wonk Chris Cillizza once again analyzes which House seats are mostly likely to flip parties in next year's elections. Nine of the top ten endangered posts are currently held by Republicans. Not exactly a positive omen for the GOP heading into 2008.
Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, currently occupied by retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad makes the list in sixth place. That's three spots down from its previous ranking. Cillizza argues that the race has been slow to take shape:
Among the newly open seats, none is more difficult to analyze than this one. On its face, the district should be very competitive; President Bush won it with just 51 percent in 2004 and the suburbs surrounding the Twin Cities, which are at the heart of the seat, have been moving Democratic of late due to dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.
Cillizza taps state Rep. Erik Paulson as the likely GOP nominee, but sees a scrum between state Sen. Terri Bonoff, Iraq war vet Ashwin Madia and Edina Mayor Jim Hovland on the DFL side of the aisle. "Minnesota politics goes at its own pace and this race just isn't gelling yet," he writes.