Franken has recount advantage, Dartmouth study says
A Dartmouth College study of the Minnesota Senate recount shows more evidence that undervotes in the race could favor Al Franken in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman. (via FiveThirtyEight)
We show using a combination of precinct voting returns from the 2006 and 2008 General Elections that patterns in Senate race residual votes are consistent with, one, the presence of a large number of Democratic-leaning voters, in particular African-American voters, who appear to have deliberately skipped voting in the Coleman-Franken Senate contest and, two, the presence of a smaller number of Democratic-leaning voters who almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race but for some reason did not do so. Ultimately, the anticipated recount may clarify the relative proportions of intentional versus unintentional residual votes. At present, though, the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken.
There's no actual prediction of a possible winner in the study. Read the full report here.
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