Donald Trump didn't campaign in Minnesota before the Republican caucus.
And lost it badly.
Trump did fly in for a high-price fundraiser at the Minneapolis Convention Center, immediately jetting back out before the plates were cleared. To date, he still hasn't publicly addressed the people of this state.
That hasn't stopped him from mentioning us. Back in August, Trump told a crowd of supports in Maine that Minnesota is having "tremendous problems" with its Muslim immigrant population, citing terrorist recruiting and the effect on the state's social safety net.
On Saturday, Trump had Minnesota on the mind yet again. And again, Donald was breaking some bad news to us. This time, it was an audience in Phoenix that had to hear it first.
Trump's troubling message for Minnesota was a double whammy: First, under the Affordable Care Act, our insurance market is broken. That's bad enough.
Even worse? We might vote for Donald Trump.
Trump started his address with the usual rabble-rousing, telling the crowd how great they are, and how much they should hate the media members there recording his speech.
"They are the most dishonest, corrupt people. They are the most dishonest people. They are the most dishonest people," Trump said, describing the journalists who will soon inform the public that Hillary Clinton is the next President of the United States.
Then Trump moved to a theme that's become central to the late stage of his campaign. Health insurance. Across the country are fleeing the Obamacare marketplaces, or hiking their premiums astronomically.
Trump told the crowd he can stop the rising tides, saying, "you're gonna do very well if I get elected, because we're getting rid of Obamacare, and we're going to have an alternative that's cheaper, cheaper, and better, better."
Amazing! How does it work, Donald?
"Folks, we're going to have so many options, so many great plans. We're going to have plans that you don't even know what -- there's going to be so much competition. We're going to get rid of the borders, we're going to get rid of the lines, the artificial lines."
Trump was referring to interstate commerce, and the fact insurers can't sell outside their own state. Still, we encourage you to take this quoted passage out of context, attribute it to Trump, and email it to your craziest uncle.
Then comes the part about us.
"In Minnesota, where the premium increase will be close to 60 percent, the Democratic governor -- who's a real party stalwart -- said, 'the Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable.' That's in, that's in Minnesota. A state which we could actually win. We can win Minnesota."
And the crowd goes wild. "YAY! WINNING! OR THE PERCEPTION OF WINNING! EVEN IF IT'S NOT BASED ON FACTS OR GROUNDED IN REALITY!"
As of this morning, the New York Times' round-up of polling analysis by a variety of national news outlets -- "the most dishonest, corrupt people" -- tells a different story. Most have a Clinton lock in Minnesota, with the likelihood of a Democratic victory 95 percent or higher. The lowest rating is Nate Silver's 538, which gives Clinton an 86 percent chance of winning Minnesota.
If Trump is actually attempting to win Minnesota, he's sure got a funny way of showing it, hitting almost every other state without stopping here. Saturday was his seventh campaign rally in Arizona, a state where he's leading. Historically, Arizona -- backing every Republican since Dwight Eisenhower -- is the other side of the coin from Minnesota, which hasn't gone Republican since 1972.
All Trump's done to woo Minnesota is 1) invite the wealthiest of us to a $1,000-a-plate dinner and 2) shit talk us from far away.
Even on Nate Silver's timeline, the greatest "chances of winning" rating Trump ever had in Minnesota was 42 percent, back around the time of the Republican convention. Since then his odds of winning here have taken a nosedive, and bouncing along the 10 percent mark for most of October.
Maybe Trump's on to something. The more Minnesota has seen of Donald Trump, the worse his chances got here. If he wants to turn Minnesota orange November 8, he should stay away.
And shut up. Especially about us.
- It's on: Democrats sue to keep Donald Trump off Minnesota ballot
- Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump need your phone number [UPDATE]
- The 20 best nicknames for Donald Trump (so far)
- Donald Trump says Minnesota's having 'tremendous problems' [VIDEO]
- Matt Erickson, Minnesotans for Trump spokesman, has bad Facebook posts
- DFL Party condemns anti-Trump protesters for Minneapolis violence [VIDEO]
- Ah shit, Donald Trump's coming to Minneapolis
- Donald Trump supporters suck at English