Queen Elizabeth and the smart money is on Street Sense

Here's the Derby lineup:


1 Sedgefield 50-1 2 Curlin 7-2 3 Zanjero 30-1 4 Storm in May 30-1 5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1 6 Cowtown Cat 20-1 7 Street Sense 4-1 8 Hard Spun 15-1 9 Liquidity 30-1 10 Teuflesberg 30-1 11 Bwana Bull 50-1 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1 13 Sam P. 20-1 14 Scat Daddy 10-1 15 Tiago 15-1 16 Circular Quay 8-1 17 Stormello 30-1 18 Any Given Saturday 12-1 19 Dominican 20-1 20 Great Hunter 15-1

I'm not inclined to care much about post position. It's going to be a long, messy race. But Great Hunter getting pushed all the way out wide insures that he won't be in any of my bets.

After Milan went up 3-0 in its brilliant pasting of Manchester last night, I spent some time studying the race history of these beasts. Granted the wine stains on the sheets indicate that I might not have been at the height of my handicapping powers, but how is Street Sense not the favorite in this race?

He's raced seven times, winning three and never finishing out of the money. He's earned, by far, the best speed rating (108) of any of these horses. Granted he finished a lousy second to Dominican in the Blue Grass Stakes, but given the ridiculously slow early pace on the polytrack surface at Keeneland, popular consensus is to toss that race out the window.

And who has Curlin beat? Teuflesberg?

I'm going to be out at Canterbury this evening. I'll conduct a straw poll of Derby favorites among the skells haunting the third floor.

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