Buck the Idiot: Reversal of Fortune

Okay, so the idiot pulled a fast one last week, actually picking 11 winners out of 15 games. My percentage is now up to 44, which means if you've bucked the idiot from the start, you'd barely have any coin after paying the vigorish. But you'd still be ahead, my friend, and I'm guessing my idiocy will right itself this week and restore things to their proper perspective. Hopefully by now you know the drill. I'll pick the ten college and five NFL teams I honestly think have the best chance of covering the spread. I think you'd be wise to bet the other way.

On to the picks...

IOWA minus 2 and a half over Michigan. The Hawkeyes have righted themselves-- it's a typical Kirk Ferenz team--and Michigan is down, headed for a minor bowl and Lloyd Carr's head on a platter.

CONNECTICUT plus 3 and a half over Rutgers. I understand that Rutgers is vastly improved, but whupping Syracuse doesn't mean they're good enough to be giving points on the road.

AUBURN plus 6 and a half over LSU. I still think the Tigers are worn down from Katrina distractions and the adjustment to a new coach. And Auburn is gelling.

NEBRASKA plus 2 over Missouri. Why isn't Nebraska getting more respect? The 'Huskers are one play away from being undefeated. They'll beat Missou straight up, even away from Lincoln.

VANDERBILT plus 8 over South Carolina. Vandy has played a tough schedule the last few weeks. Going into South Carolina is going to feel like a breather and 8 points is way too much here.

ILLINIOS plus 17 and a half over Penn State. Illinios is terrible, and the Nittany Lions will win comfortably. But one of their super frosh is hurt, they lost their national championship hopes last week, and I just have a feeling this is merely a workman-like victory, say 22-10.

CALIFORNIA minus 12 over Washington State. Atonement time for what I still think is a very good Cal squad. They let UCLA get away and underestimated the Oregon Ducks. Washington State won't be so lucky.

WISCONSIN minus 8 over Purdue. Stick a fork in Purdue. Eight points doesn't mean a lot in this game, as both defenses are suspect. But the Badgers are still playing for relatively large stakes. The Boilermakers are playing for break-even.

CINCINNATI plus 22 over Louisville. The Cardinals are overrated this year because they were underrated last year--sort of like giving the Oscar to the actor's good performance after a great one slipped past. Cincinnati isn't that bad, and even though the campuses are only 3-4 hours apart, they're playing at home as a heavy heavy 'dog.

College "lock": VIRGINIA plus 1 over North Carolina. Virginia chewed up Florida State, supposedly a top ten team, last week. And now they're underdogs to North Carolina?

And five pro games...

CINCINNATI minus 1 over Pittsburgh. That's two Cincinnati picks this week--I really must be an idiot. But seriously, the Bengals are at home, Carson Palmer is healthy, and Big Ben isn't. And even when the Bengals sucked, they played the Steelers tough.

HOUSTON plus 16 over Indianapolis. Undefeated team against winless team six weeks into the season is a recipe for complacency. The NFL's parity is a cliche by now, but don't you expect a closer game than two touchdowns just because parity, like shit, always eventually happens in the NFL.

SEATTLE minus 3 over Dallas. It figures that the Seahawks would finally be good the one year everyone stops regarding them as a contender. Giving up only a field goal at home against the Cowboys, with Shaun Alexander steamrolling to another great year? Sign me up.

OAKLAND minus 3 over Buffalo. It's been a nice little run for Kelly Holcomb, but if the Raiders lose at home today to go 1-5, it's a major disaster. I don't think Holcomb can handle a defense that's that motivated.

And, last but certainly not least, the NFL "lock"

BALTIMORE plus 1 over Chicago. I'd lay even money that the Ravens defense outscores the Bears offense; or at least sets up more points with red zone takeaways.

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